WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 22Feb

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 15Feb.
The graphs show the Jan distribution
rally phase followed by the Feb balance
phase from 95s-98s, clearly identifying
the longer term shift.

Plotted are Support (blue), Resistance (red),
and Points of Control (green) indicating monthly & weekly
levels of significance based on the market structure, not opinion.

Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 15Feb, and projected levels for week ending 22Feb. 

This graph shows our weekly statistical expectations for 18Feb-22Feb: (94.95, 94.67, 94.40 as potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for the week. 


The market auctioned within the Feb micro-cluster, 95s-97s, early in the week, developing a Buy Spike structure into Tue’s auction close. This Spike’s High, 96.70s, was defended as resistance, beginning a major sellside auction which was confirmed upon the market breaking down below the key structural support, 95s. Selling accelerated into the lower Jan cluster, 94.40s-92.40s, visible on the monthly TPO graph. Price discovery continued lower ultimately achieving a stopping point at/near the structural support, 92.45s, as noted on the graph. The market closed at/near the 93.10s well beyond the weekly 2nd Std Dev Low expectation, 94.40s. 

The context of a failed Buy Spike and structural breakdown on Tue, informed the participant of the asymmetric sellside opportunity and likely destinations of such an outcome. Knowledge of these structural & statistical levels of significance (95s, 94.40s, 93.10s, 92.40s) provided clarity into the appropriate strategy (short positions) and potential destinations in congruence with the market structure.

These graphs provide a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion, to inform the participant of structural  levels of significance, statistically probable destinations, and the resting supply/demand clusters of the auction. All were required this week to maximize trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk. 
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