WTI Crude: Oct Monthly Profile View. 29Oct

Below, our monthly profile view from 28Sep.

We see the beginning of  the current
intermediate downtrend with the
monthly close lower. 
Additionally, we can see
the areas of resting supply overhead:
95-98s & 91-93s.
Below, our monthly profile view from 26Oct.

We see that last week’s auction resulted in 
a continuation of the downtrend,
resulting in a breakdown from the 91-93 cluster
with price discovery toward the 85s.
Below, our weekly profile view from 26Oct.

Following last week’s long liquidation/
price discovery to 85s, the market achieved a stopping point
and developed a balance area from 85s-88s.
Using these structural views along with 
daily statistical projections informs
the market observer/participant
in making inferences not only about market direction
but also the potential amplitudes of such moves.
This improves trade efficiency & reduces risk. 

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Weekend News 27Oct

The Brent-WTI Spread closed at/near $23.46 this week.
Demand in Brent contract persists.


As we referenced in our daily studies this week,
WTI achieved a stopping point at/near $85 and a
2 day balance phase. Balance begets imbalance
and next directional move.

Will the intermediate term sellside take the market
toward $80, or will sellers find themselves
short in the hole causing a counter-trend rally?

China Manufacturing PMI & US NFP may
serve as catalysts this coming week,


barring any other external shocks.
Hurricane Sandy may cause disruption
(some tankers caught along Atlantic coast,
some refining capacity at risk).

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Central Banks

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Supply/Demand & Markets

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