WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 10May

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 03May. 
Plotted are Key Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green). 

The graphs also show the larger structural development
of the auction noting the monthly timeframe Balance between
Apr Stopping Point High, 97.40s, and the Stopping Point Low, 85.60s, (left).

Last week’s buyside directional phase led to price discovery higher toward
the Major Structural Resistance, 96s-97.50s, (right). 
Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 03May, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 10May.

Result?…

As noted in the inferential analysis, the buyside continuation & challenge of the Major Structural Resistance, 97.50s, did occur as the market auctioned higher early in the week, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point, 97.20s, at/near the Weekly 1st Std Dev High, 97.08s. 


Following the Stopping Point, the Balance Phase, 95s-96.80s, developed for most of the remainder of the week. The Balance Phase continued into Friday’s Globex session, where the initiated selling entered the market, driving price lower out of Balance, beginning a sellside Directional Phase, achieving the Stopping Point, 93.40s, at/near the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 93.90s. The market developed the Balance Phase, 93.40s-94.00s, before the order flow sequence shifted buyside and the market began a substantial short covering rally & inventory adjustment phase driving price back up the entire Globex & Pit session ranges, closing at/near 96s.

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the Significant Structural Resistance from 96s-97.50s facing the market coming into this week. Following a multi-week buyside auction of almost $10 off the Key Structural Support, probability favored the potential development of a Structural Stopping Point and Balance Phase. Additionally, knowledge of both the key Structural & Statistical Levels provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (range trade during Balance, short positions early Friday closed near Structural & Statistical Supports) in congruence with the market structure. 

A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 10May




Overnight

As of 730 CST, 
the market balanced within Thu Balance, 96.20s-95.60s, before sellside programs entered, driving price lower, out of  multi day Balance, 96.40s-94.85s, toward the Structural Support, 94.80s, onto the 1st Std Dev Low area, 94.20s.

The directional breakdown and the potential Gap Open lower into the Pit session open implies structural imbalance. Response to this will be of focus into today’s Pit session as Gap rules apply.