Weekend News 04May

The market began the week auctioning higher from last week’s Settlement Area toward the Key Structural Resistance, 94.70s, achieving the Stopping Point & Balance there.


 Initiated selling entered the market, driving price through all Statistical Support Levels achieving the Stopping Point at/near Key Structural Support, 90s, into midweek. 



Following brief Balance Phase at/near the Low, initiated buying entered the market, driving price higher, ultimately extending the range higher toward the Major Overhead Supply Cluster, 96s-97.50s, closing the week at/near 95.60s.


Graphics

Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • JPMorgan’s Regulatory Woes & Alleged Energy Market Manipulations. (Dealbook)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • US Crude Oil Stocks At Record. (Platts)
  • A New Problem For Fracking: Water. (Quartz)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 03May

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 26Apr. 
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green). 

The graphs show the monthly timeframe sellside auction and the 
Stopping Point development at/near 86s within the April distribution (left). Last week’s
Directional Phase development following breakout above the Balance High, 89.50s, 
is evident on the weekly timeframe distribution (right).
Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 26Apr, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 03May. 


Result?…

The market began the week auctioning higher from last week’s Settlement, 92.26s, toward the Key Structural Resistance, 94.70s, coinciding with the Weekly 2nd Std Dev High Level, 94.74s. The market achieved the Stopping Point & Balance here before the initiated selling entered the market, driving price through all Statistical Support Levels achieving the Stopping Point at/near Key Structural Support, 90s, into midweek. 

Following a brief Balance Phase at/near the Low, the initiated buying entered the market, driving price back up the week’s range ultimately extending the range higher toward the Major Overhead Supply Cluster, 96s-97.50s, closing the week at/near 95.60s.

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the Structural Development of a Directional Phase following the breakout of the Balance Phase, 86s-89.50s. The development of a new Directional Phase implied a high probability of continued price discovery higher. Additionally, knowledge of both the key Structural & Statistical Levels provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (in this case long positions into Wkly 2nd Std Dev High, 94.75s, early week/possible short positions on failure there, and/or re-establishing/initiation of long positions on the pullback and buyside defense of the Key Structural Support at/near 90s) in congruence with the market structure. 

 A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic.

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