Weekend News 20Apr

As noted last week here, the market response at/near the 90.25s was key in the outcome of this week’s auction. The market opened this week at/near last week’s low breaking down in the Sunday Globex session well beyond the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low projection, 89.47s, here.

The magnitude of this breakdown implied significant inventory imbalance, and the market continued price discovery lower achieving the Stopping Point at/near 86.10s (Nov-Dec ’12 Major Structural Support Area).

The market saw a relief rally from that level before selling off back down to test the Stopping Point, probing the low down toward 85.70s. There, the market cleared the stops, encountering the buy response, and rallied the market off the low. This action solidified the development of the Balance Phase, 86s-89s, amidst the contract roll, closing the week at/near 88.30s. 

Next week’s response to either edge of the developing Balance Phase, 86-89s, will be of focus. 
As the Balance matures, inventory imbalance will develop. At that point, IF 86s hold as support, breakout price discovery potential to 89.50s/91s. IF 89s hold as resistance, breakout price discovery potential to 84s.


Graphics

Central Banks

  • “Highlights” Of IMF/World Bank Meetings. (IMF)
  • Next BOE Chief, Carney, Praises Fed’s Rate “Signals”. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Japan’s Iranian Crude Import Drop On Pause For US Sanction Exemption. (Platts)
  • G-20: Officials Decry Lack Of Growth. (AP)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • US Crude Data Shows Reflects Slow Growth, Sayeth API. (UPI)
  • Statoil Makes “Significant” North Sea Find. (UPI)
  • Reinhart-Rogoff Study May Be Flawed, Sayeth UMass Researchers. (Reuters)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 19Apr

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 12Apr. 
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the larger scale Balance, 89s-98s, within the monthly context
(left) and the last week’s directional phase breakdown from weekly
balance cluster, 94.80s-92s. 

This structural development implied high probability of retest of the Mar Stopping Point, 
89.30s, with potential for continued price discovery lower should that level fail.


Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 12Apr, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 19Apr. 

Result?…

The market opened this week at/near the prior week’s low, 90.55s, breaking down in the Sunday Globex session driving the market toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 89.47s, early in this week’s auction. 


The market developed the Stopping Point at/near 88.50s, Balancing (88.50s-90.25s), then resumed the price discovery lower toward the 86.40s achieving the Stopping Point there at/near Major Structural Support from Nov-Dec 2012. The market saw a midweek relief rally off this level, selling off back to test the Weekly Stopping Point into Thu’s session. The market probed the low, 86.40s, down to 86s, encountering the buy response, continuing the development of the balance phase, 86s-89s, closing the week at/near 88.30s. 

These studies informed our subscribers of the likely challenge of the Major Structural Low, 89.30s, and the implications of both potential outcomes at that level. The market behavior of significantly exceeding the 2nd Standard Deviation Low projection early in the week further confirmed the likely destination, the next Major Structural Support, 86s. This information provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (short positions early week, range trade mid to late week) in congruence with the market structure. 

A holistic market view based on the market generated data and probability logic, not opinion.

For additional information & a 1 week free trial, 
please visit our subscription page