WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 01Nov

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 25Oct.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Structural Resistance (red), and Points Of Control (green).
The left graphic shows the Sep monthly timeframe distribution, 111s-101s,
following Aug’s Structural Selling Tail, 112.25s-110.50s, on the unrealized 
Syrian military action narrative. Price discovery lower ultimately filled in the 
Structural Buying Tail, 104.20s-105.70s, and continued during Oct’s auction.
Following Oct Balance, 104s-100s, price discovery lower continued
Last week’s auction (right) shows the uptick attempt early in the week
into the Overhead Supply Cluster, 100s-104s, where sell programs entered,
driving price lower for the remainder of the week. 

Our weekly statistical study plotting key 
reference levels/weekly close for 25Oct, 
projected levels/inferential analysis for 
01Nov, and weekly range frequency table.  
Result?… 
 
The market opened this week at/near 98s, in micro balance, 97.50s-98s, before buy programs entered early week, driving price toward 99s, at/near last week’s upper POC within the prior Overhead Low Usage Area, 98.40s-100.50s. 
Responsive selling emerged there, driving price back toward Key Support at/near 97.50s into midweek. Sell programs re-entered there on tepid economic data, EIA inventory, and FOMC narratives, driving price lower to test Major Structural Support, 96s. 
Following midweek balance, 96s-97s, sell programs entered again toward week’s end, driving price lower from Jul’s Major Structural Support, 96s, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point Low, 94.50s, at/near Jun Structural Support.
Ultimately, this week’s auction saw continued sellside price discovery, as inferred, toward Jun’s Structural Support, 94.50s, not quite achieving the Weekly Range Range Expectation, 93.34s. 
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the significance of the Structural Breakdown that occurred below the Balance, 104s-100s, the implication of the response at/near 99.50s, and provided quantifiable destinations in congruence with market structure. In this case, short positions following the uptick failure at prior Overhead Supply, 99s, and exits at the Statistical and  prior Structural Support offered the asymmetric opportunity.
Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 
Interested in what to look for this week?
Please visit our subscription page for a free trial.

Weekend News 27Oct

The market opened this week at/near 101.05s, near last week’s Settlement where sell programs entered, driving price lower below Key Structural Support, 101s, as a sellside directional phase began.

Following a pause at/near 99.30s, sell programs entered midweek, driving price lower, achieving the Stopping Point, 95.95s, at/near the Avg Wkly Range Low, where responsive buy programs entered, driving price off the low. Buy programs entered at 97s, driving price higher toward 98s, closing the week at/near 97.85s. 

Graphics

  • Supply & Demand Look: Medium Term Oil Market Report. (IEA)
  • 4 out of 5 Market Valuations Agree: Market Overvalued. (Zerohedge)

Central Banks

  • Senator Paul Plans ‘Hold’ On Yellen Nomination. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • African Nations Seek Ways To Make Oil A Blessing, Not Curse. (Guardian)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • Potentials & Risks To The $5tril Permian. (Bloomberg)
  • Euro Hits Highest Weekly Close Since Oct ’11. (Forex Live)