WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 12Apr

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 05Apr.
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the Feb breakdown and Directional Phase below 95s
followed by the Mar Stopping Point at 89.30s, Balance 89.30s-94.40s,
and Directional Phase above 94.40s back toward Major Structural Resistance at/near 98s.

Last week’s Selling Tail at the Major Structural Resistance, 98s,
identified the shift in market development from trend, signaling potential 
for balance phase. This occurred and resulted in a long liquidation Directional
Phase lower toward 92s.  

 Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 05Apr, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 12Apr.


The market  balanced early in the week at/near last week’s high before breaking out upside, driving the market toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev High, 94.39s, within the the key near term overhead supply cluster, 94.10s-94.60s.

The market encountered the Selling Tail, 94.85s-94.60s, into midweek which indicated the capping of the market by the longer term sellside at the prior key supply cluster. The market balanced 93.50s-94.60s, before breaking out lower and beginning a new directional phase as long liquidation occurred. The market sold off toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 91.03s, continuing lower into the lower Mar cluster, 90.40s-91.30s. The market achieved the Weekly Stopping Point at/near the 90.25s, balancing 90.25s-91.80s into the week’s close. 

Knowledge of the Statistical Levels coupled with prior resting supply (94.10-94.60s) informed our subscribers of the growing asymmetric market condition facing the buyside once the midweek Selling Tail, 94.85s-94.60s, appeared. This information provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (long positions early week, short positions late week) in congruence within the market structure.

This study provides a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion.
It facilitates trade efficiency and minimizes asymmetric risk. 

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Weekend News 06Apr

As noted last week here, the market challenged the key structural resistance at/near 97.80s early this week developing a Structural Selling Tail, 97.80s-97.30s, in Sunday’s Globex session. This development implied potential for balance. 

The market balanced into midweek before beginning a new directional phase lower as long liquidation drove the market toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 95.54s, continuing lower before pausing at/near last week’s key breakout level area at/near 94.20s.

The market balanced there before continuing the long liquidation into the lower Mar cluster, 94s-92s, achieving the weekly Stopping Point at/near 92s closing the week at/near 92.70s. 

Next week’s response at/near 92s will be of focus. IF 92s hold as support, price discovery potential to 93.50s/94.50s. IF 92s fail as support, price discovery potential to 90.50s/89.50s.


Central Banks

  • BOJ’s ¥270 Trillion QE. (Reuters)
  • BoE Keeps Policy Unchanged. (Reuters)
  • ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged. (BIS)
  • Asian Currencies To Rally v USDollar, Sayeth Reuters Poll. (Reuters)


  • North Korea & Cold War Theatrics. (RT)
  • North Korean Aggression Could Strengthen US-China Relations. (AP)
  • P5 +1 Iran Negotiations April 5-6. (Brookings)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • What Do Rig Counts Reveal? (Platts)
  • US Trade Gap: Lowest Crude Imports Since ’96. (Reuters)
  • Goldman Boosts Outlook As Nat Gas Hits 20mth High. (Bloomberg)