Weekend News 09Mar

As noted in last week’s review, here, following the structural breakdown of 91.50s, the market was poised to continue the price discovery lower this week within the Oct/Dec trade cluster, 90.40s-87.90s. 


Last week’s Stopping Point, 90.20s, was tested, extending the range lower toward the cluster POC, 89.40s. The Stopping Point was achieved there, balancing from 89.30s-90.80s midweek before buyside sequence into week’s end, closing at/near the high 92s.

The sellside response at/near the key structural resistance, 91.50s/92s, will be key in next week’s auction. IF sellside defends, then price discovery potential lower toward 89.40s/88s. IF sellside fails to defend structural resistance, then price discovery potential higher toward 93s/95s as inventory is adjusted. 

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  • Short Sales Decline As Bull Market Enters Fifth Year. (Bloomberg)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 08Mar

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 01Mar.
The graphs show the Jan distribution rally phase 
followed by the Feb balance phase, 98s-95s, 
identifying the longer term shift in market development. 
A new directional phase lower began following the breakdown 
at the key structural support, 95s, resulting in breakdown below 
both the Feb & Jan structural lows to begin March.

The shift to a directional phase and structural breakdown
 implied high probability of price discovery lower within the 
90.40-87.90 trade cluster before achieving a Stopping Point. 
This is in fact what occurred to at/near 89.40s this week.

Plotted are Support (blue), Resistance (red), 
and Points of Control (green) indicating monthly & 
weekly levels of significance based on the market structure, not opinion.

Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 01Mar, and projected levels for week ending 08Mar.                      

This graph shows our weekly statistical expectations for 04Mar-08Mar: (91.78 potential resistance & 89.58, 89.29, 89.01 potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for the week. 

Result…?

The market auctioned lower early in the week toward the Weekly 1st Std Dev Low, 89.30s,
achieving a Stopping Point there. This level coincided with the structural POC of the Oct/Dec trade cluster, 87.90-99.40s, referenced in last week’s video review. Following this Stopping Point, the balance phase of market development began from 89.30s-91s into mid-week. The market pulled back near the Stopping Point, encountering no initiated selling to drive the market lower, setting the stage for the next directional phase of market development higher toward the Average Weekly Range High, 91.78s, achieved week’s end, closing at/near the weekly high 91.95s. This area coincides with the structural resistance area/breakdown point from last week.

The context of last week’s structural breakdown, the structural and statistical levels of significance, and insight into the phases of market development informed our subscribers of the likely halt of the down auction early in the week and the growing asymmetric opportunity (risk) for the buyside (sellside) into the back half of the week. Further, the provided structural & statistical levels provided quantifiable, potential destinations in congruence with the market structure. 
These graphs provide a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion. They facilitate trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk.  

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