WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 02Aug

Our weekly TPO Profile graphics for 26Jul. 
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of Jul’s buyside directional phase, 99s-107.40s, 
followed by Jul’s Balance Phase, 107.40s-104s. 

Last week’s sellside auction (right) within the Balance toward 
the key Structural Support, 104s, implied potential for a challenge 
of Structural Support and/or directional breakdown should it fail.



Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 26Jul, projected levels /inferential analysis for 02Aug, and weekly range frequency table. 

Result?…

The market balanced early week, 103.80s-105.40s, around last week’s Settlement, 104.70s, before sell programs drove price lower, breaking down below the key Structural Support, 104s.

The market achieved the Stopping Point, 102.70s, into midweek, failing to encounter initiated selling to confirm the breakdown and drive price lower. Buy programs entered Wed, driving price back up the near term trade balance, 104s-109s, achieving a Stopping Point High, 108.80s, at/near Major Structural Resistance. Sell programs entered early Fri, driving price lower, achieving the Stopping Point, 106.40s, at/near Fri’s Average Daily Range Low, Balancing, 106.40s-107.30s, to close the week at/near 106.95s.

Ultimately, this week’s auction showed the directional breakdown attempt below 104s and subsequent failure. Failed breakouts imply high probability of rotation back through the prior range, presenting asymmetric opportunity. This week’s failed breakdown resulted in a buyside directional phase back to Major Structural Resistance, 108.80s, just below the week’s minimum upside rotational expectation, 109.75s. 

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the structural significance of the 104 level and the implications of a successful breakdown or failure, providing quantifiable destinations in congruence with the market structure. 

Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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