As of 700 CST,
the market has balanced within Tue’s lower cluster, 105.80s-105s, around yesterday’s Settlement, 105.30s.
Yesterday’s b shape structure implies potential for lower prices, and response at either edge of Balance will be of focus into Pit session.
The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of Jul’s buyside directional phase, 99s-107.40s,
followed by Jul’s Balance Phase, 107.40s-104s.
Last week’s sellside auction (right) within the Balance toward
the key Structural Support, 104s, implied potential for a challenge
of Structural Support and/or directional breakdown should it fail.
The market balanced early week, 103.80s-105.40s, around last week’s Settlement, 104.70s, before sell programs drove price lower, breaking down below the key Structural Support, 104s.
The market achieved the Stopping Point, 102.70s, into midweek, failing to encounter initiated selling to confirm the breakdown and drive price lower. Buy programs entered Wed, driving price back up the near term trade balance, 104s-109s, achieving a Stopping Point High, 108.80s, at/near Major Structural Resistance. Sell programs entered early Fri, driving price lower, achieving the Stopping Point, 106.40s, at/near Fri’s Average Daily Range Low, Balancing, 106.40s-107.30s, to close the week at/near 106.95s.
Ultimately, this week’s auction showed the directional breakdown attempt below 104s and subsequent failure. Failed breakouts imply high probability of rotation back through the prior range, presenting asymmetric opportunity. This week’s failed breakdown resulted in a buyside directional phase back to Major Structural Resistance, 108.80s, just below the week’s minimum upside rotational expectation, 109.75s.
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the structural significance of the 104 level and the implications of a successful breakdown or failure, providing quantifiable destinations in congruence with the market structure.