WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today. 22Mar




Our daily TPO profile graphic for 22Mar.
This graph shows the weekly distribution (right)
development of balance within the upper half of the Mar monthly distribution (left), 92s-94.40s, following the prior buyside phase and breakout above structural resistance, 92s.

This graphic identifies the key structural resistance and support (94.40s/92s) which were key to understanding the significance of the upside breakout of Mon 25Mar.






Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 22Mar and projected statistical levels/inferential analysis for 25Mar.

Result?…




Following Fri’s structural Buy Spike, the 93.70s held as support resulting in a upside breakout above key structural resistance, 94.40s. Price discovery toward the Daily 2nd Std Dev High, 95.65s, referenced 22Mar.






Knowledge of the structural Buy Spike, the response of 25Mar, and the statistical levels provided the context necessary to align trade with the dominant market participant (in this case buyside) and insight into where such activity may be shut off (in this case the Daily 2nd Std Dev High).

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Weekend News 23Mar

As noted in last week’s review hereboth 93.80s and 92s were key in this week’s auction. The pullback to 92s set the stage for range extension higher above the key structural resistance during this week’s contract roll and larger balance context.

The market auctioned lower from last week’s close toward the Wkly 1st Std Dev Low at/near 92s where there was a buyside rejection. The market rallied, adjusting the short inventory, toward the key structural high, 93.80s, breaking out higher before achieving the Weekly Stopping Point at/near 94.40s. 

There was a sellside rejection there as the market sold back toward the 92.80s, balancing during the mid-week FOMC/EIA narratives. The sellside then initiated, driving the market lower to retest the weekly low. The retest was met with a buy response as the market rallied back up the weekly range, closing in the upper quartile for the week at/near 93.75s.

Next week’s response on a retest of the high at/near 94.40s will be of focus. IF 94.40s hold as resistance, price discovery potential toward 92s, likely range extension to 90.50s. IF 94.40s fail as resistance, price discovery potential toward 95/95.60s.

Graphics

Central Banks

  • Bernanke Refreshes Easy Money Message In Spite Of Non-Voting Hawks’ Complaints. (Reuters)
  • Calls For Interest Rate Hikes In Brazil. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Burgeoning Cooperation Between China & Russia. (RT)
  • BRICs Summit 2013: Development Bank Focus. (BBC)

Supply/Demand & Markets