Weekend News 01Jun

The market auctioned higher early week from last week’s Settlement, 94.15s, as initiated buying drove price out of last week’s trade cluster, 92.20s-94.50s, into the low usage area overhead. The market achieved the Stopping Point High, 95.90s, at/near the Wkly 1st Std Dev High & Key Overhead POC. 

Following the Stopping Point & Balance, initiated selling entered, driving price lower through midweek, achieving the Stopping Point, 91.60s, at/near the Wkly 2nd Std Dev Low. The market balanced, 91.60s-94s, selling off into Friday’s close at/near 91.95s. 

Graphics

Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • OPEC Keeps Output Unchanged. (Bloomberg)
  • Keystone Wait Weighs On Smaller Oil Producers. (Bloomberg)
  • TOTAL Settles US Bribe Probe For $398mil; CEO May Be Tried. (Reuters)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • EIA: +3mil v -500k. (EIA)
  • Future of Crude Pipelines In Eastern Canada & New England. (Platts)
  • As Costs Of Energy Goes Up, Food Prices Follow. ZIRP & QE Not Connected. (World Bank)
  • Europe’s Largest Onshore Crude Fields, In Italy…. (Bloomberg)

Outrageous Market Fortune

  • DOJ Asked To Investigate JPMorgan Trading. (Reuters)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 31May

Our weekly TPO Profile graphics for 24May. 
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of Apr’s buyside directional phase from the Stopping Point Low, 85.60s,
achieving the May Stopping Point High, 97.20s, and subsequent Balance
Phase, 97.20s-94.50s. 

Last week’s development (right) of a breakdown
from the Upper Balance Cluster implied the potential for price discovery
lower should a sell response develop at the overhead supply. 

Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 24May, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 31May. 

Result?…

The market auctioned higher early week from last week’s Settlement, 94.15s, as initiated buying drove price out of last week’s trade cluster, 92.20s -94.50s, into the low usage area overhead. The market achieved the Stopping Point High, 95.90s, at/near the Weekly 1st Std Dev High & Key Overhead POC.

Following the Stopping Point & Balance at the high, initiated selling entered, driving price lower through midweek, achieving the Stopping Point, 91.60s, at/near the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low. The market balanced, 91.60s-94s, selling off into Friday’s close at/near 91.95s. 

Ultimately, this week’s auction first filled in last week’s low usage overhead with a buyside auction to key overhead supply, where the market encountered the sellside, driving the market lower, continuing the development of the larger timeframe Balance, 90s-97.20s. 

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the Structural significance of the breakout of last week’s lower trade cluster, 92.20s-94.50s, and the potential Structural and Statistical destinations in either case (early week asymmetric risk to sellside). Additionally, this data identified the asymmetric risk developing for the buyside into Key Structural Supply overhead into midweek. Finally, Structural and Statistical Support/Resistance provided quantifiable, potential destinations in congruence with market structure. 


Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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