WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 22Feb

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 15Feb.
The graphs show the Jan distribution
rally phase followed by the Feb balance
phase from 95s-98s, clearly identifying
the longer term shift.

Plotted are Support (blue), Resistance (red),
and Points of Control (green) indicating monthly & weekly
levels of significance based on the market structure, not opinion.

Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 15Feb, and projected levels for week ending 22Feb. 

This graph shows our weekly statistical expectations for 18Feb-22Feb: (94.95, 94.67, 94.40 as potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for the week. 


The market auctioned within the Feb micro-cluster, 95s-97s, early in the week, developing a Buy Spike structure into Tue’s auction close. This Spike’s High, 96.70s, was defended as resistance, beginning a major sellside auction which was confirmed upon the market breaking down below the key structural support, 95s. Selling accelerated into the lower Jan cluster, 94.40s-92.40s, visible on the monthly TPO graph. Price discovery continued lower ultimately achieving a stopping point at/near the structural support, 92.45s, as noted on the graph. The market closed at/near the 93.10s well beyond the weekly 2nd Std Dev Low expectation, 94.40s. 

The context of a failed Buy Spike and structural breakdown on Tue, informed the participant of the asymmetric sellside opportunity and likely destinations of such an outcome. Knowledge of these structural & statistical levels of significance (95s, 94.40s, 93.10s, 92.40s) provided clarity into the appropriate strategy (short positions) and potential destinations in congruence with the market structure.

These graphs provide a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion, to inform the participant of structural  levels of significance, statistically probable destinations, and the resting supply/demand clusters of the auction. All were required this week to maximize trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk. 
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WTI Crude: Tomorrrow’s Levels, Today. 19Feb

Our daily TPO profile graphic for 19Feb.
This graph shows the key structural formation
of the Buy Spike, 95.95s-96.70s, into the 19Feb close. 

Spike rules dictate that should one edge of the Spike hold as resistance/support, then the inventory imbalance creates high degree of probability of revisting the other edge of the Spike Range with potential for continuation in that direction. 

This condition manifested in a substantial way as the Spike High held as resistance, trading to Spike Low,  continuing lower, ultimately breaking down below the major structural support at 95s, adjusting inventory down to 94s before reaching a stopping point. 

Knowledge of this Spike, along with the significance of a structural support breakdown, provided the insight into most favorable positioning, in this case sellside. 

Our daily statistical study plotting both the key reference levels & price action for 19Feb, noting the Buy Spike, as well as projected statistical levels for 20Feb. 

The graph shows our daily statistical expectations for 20Feb: (95.48, 95.05, 94.62 as potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for 20Feb. 


The market challenged the Spike High, probing above toward 97s. The buyside failed there, creating inventory imbalance, resulting in the sellside auction, which accelerated on the structural breakdown at 95s. 

Regardless of the widely speculated cause/(s) and despite the rhetorical sound & fury, knowledge of the structural development and statistical levels provided necessary context and appropriate course of action for the informed participant.

Knowledge of the structural significance of the Buy Spike at Tue’s close, coupled with the significance of a breakdown at 95s informed the participant about the proper strategy (short positions in this case), eliminating the asymmetric risk (long positions in this case), AND the proper expectations (price discovery into Jan cluster, 94.40s-92.40s & daily statistical levels) based on the market generated data, not opinion. 

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