Weekend News 30Mar

As noted in last week’s review, the failure of 94.40s as resistance was key to understanding  the most probable outcome of this week’s auction, 
a buyside directional phase. 

The market broke out early this week above the key structural resistance, 94.40s, trading toward the Wkly 2nd Std Dev before pulling back, encountering a buy response, confirming the breakout.
The market  was in a buyside directional phase for the remainder of the week, auctioning back into the key  overhead Feb Supply  Cluster, 95s-98s, closing the week at/near the high, 97.25s.

Following this week’s breakout and directional phase, 97.25 s and the Feb cluster high, 98s, will be of focus as potential Stopping Point Levels. The Feb 95-98 cluster represents significant resting supply while the buyside controls the auction nearterm. IF 97.25s/98s hold, inventory adjustment toward 95s. IF 97.25s/98s fail, price discovery potential 98.50s/99.50s (Sep 2012 Supply Cluster 98.50s-100.50s).


Graphics

Central Banks

  • Central Banks Have Bought $3bil In Gold Thus Far In 2013, Sayeth UBS. (Forbes)
  • Mr. Yen: Japan’s Debt Trajectory & Central Banks Domestic Asset Purchasing. (Telegraph)

Geopolitics

  • US Judge Dismisses Substantial Portion Of Private Libor Suits v Banks. (Reuters)
  • Cyprus Authorities Confirm Raid On Big Depositors. (Telegraph)

Supply/Demand & Markets

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 29Mar

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 22Mar.
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the Feb distribution breakdown & directional
phase from 95s, identifying the longer term shift in market development.

The directional phase ended with the structural development 
of the Mar Stopping Point at/near 89.30s, signaling the potential
for  balance and/or a rally phase.


Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 22Mar, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 29Mar.

Result…?

The market broke out early this week 
above the key structural resistance, 94.40s, trading toward 95.50s before pulling back, encountering a buy response, confirming the breakout.  


The market was in a buyside directional phase for the remainder of the week  auctioning back into the key overhead Feb Supply Cluster, 95-98s, closing the week at/near the high, 97.25s, (at/near upper Feb cluster POC) greatly exceeding a 2 sigma weekly move.

Knowledge of the significance of the key structural resistance area, 94.40s, and key structural levels overhead informed our subscribers of the likely buyside directional phase and destinations in the event of a successful breakout above 94.40s. This insight, coupled with statistical levels, provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (long positions) in congruence with the market structure. 

This study provides a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion. 
It facilitates trade efficiency and minimizes asymmetric risk. 

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