WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 03Sep






Overnight:

As of 730 CST, the market balanced around Mon’s Settlement, 106.80s, before grinding higher to the key Balance area high, 107.25s.

The market probed above there, developing a Structural Selling Tail, 107.80s-107.55s, indicating the appearance of the longer timeframe seller. 

Focus on the response to this Selling Tail into the Pit session.  

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 31Aug

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 23Aug.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Point of Control (green).

The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of Jul’s buyside directional phase, 96s-108.90s, followed 
by Aug’s Stopping Point & Balance, 108.90s-102.20s.

Last week’s auction (right) reflected continued rotation within the
larger Balance Phase in development. 


Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 23Aug, projected levels/ inferential analysis for 30Aug, and weekly range frequency table. 

Result?…

The market began this week auctioning lower from last week’s Settlement, 106.40s, driving price toward Aug’s lower trade cluster, 103.50s-105.50s, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point Low at/near 105.50s.

Buy programs entered, driving price higher, breaking out above Major Structural Resistance, 108.80s, achieving the Stopping Point, 112.24s, at/near the Wkly 1st Std Dev High. Sell programs entered, driving price briskly lower from that level, developing a Structural Selling Tail, 112.24s-110.50s. The market pulled back to the key Structural Resistance/Breakout Point, 108.80s, where the buyside failed to defend. Price discovery lower continued, achieving the Stopping Point at/near 106.75s, closing the week at/near 107.65s.

Ultimately, this week’s auction was a structural failed breakout, created by a buyside directional phase above the multi-month Balance, 102.20s-108.80s, and subsequent sellside rejection and long liquidation back into the prior Balance area.

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the significance of the breakout above the Major Structural Resistance, 108.80s, the implications of such a breakout on volatility, and provided quantifiable destinations  in congruence with the market structure. In spite of the geopolitical narrative and the unknowable, this week’s auction illustrates the structural and statistical data generated by the market provides the efficient framework from which to view, strategize, and position in the market.

Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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