Weekend News 06Apr

As noted last week here, the market challenged the key structural resistance at/near 97.80s early this week developing a Structural Selling Tail, 97.80s-97.30s, in Sunday’s Globex session. This development implied potential for balance. 

The market balanced into midweek before beginning a new directional phase lower as long liquidation drove the market toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 95.54s, continuing lower before pausing at/near last week’s key breakout level area at/near 94.20s.

The market balanced there before continuing the long liquidation into the lower Mar cluster, 94s-92s, achieving the weekly Stopping Point at/near 92s closing the week at/near 92.70s. 

Next week’s response at/near 92s will be of focus. IF 92s hold as support, price discovery potential to 93.50s/94.50s. IF 92s fail as support, price discovery potential to 90.50s/89.50s.

Graphics

Central Banks

  • BOJ’s ¥270 Trillion QE. (Reuters)
  • BoE Keeps Policy Unchanged. (Reuters)
  • ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged. (BIS)
  • Asian Currencies To Rally v USDollar, Sayeth Reuters Poll. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • North Korea & Cold War Theatrics. (RT)
  • North Korean Aggression Could Strengthen US-China Relations. (AP)
  • P5 +1 Iran Negotiations April 5-6. (Brookings)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • What Do Rig Counts Reveal? (Platts)
  • US Trade Gap: Lowest Crude Imports Since ’96. (Reuters)
  • Goldman Boosts Outlook As Nat Gas Hits 20mth High. (Bloomberg)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 05Apr

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 29Mar.
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the Feb distribution breakdown & directional phase lower
from 95s, identifying the structural shift in market development from balance.

The end of the directional phase occurs with the Mar distribution Stopping Point, 89.30s,
identifying the structural shift in market development from trend, signaling the potential
for balance phase. The monthly & weekly distribution graph reflects the structural breakout
above the balance phase, 89.30s-94.50s, implying high probability of price discovery 
higher toward major Feb structural resistance at/near 98s.


Below, our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 28Mar, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 29Mar.

Result?…

The market challenged the key structural resistance at/near 97.80s early this week 
developing a Selling Tail, 97.80s-97.30s, in Sunday’s Globex session developing the Structural Stopping Point. This development implied potential for balance. 

The market balanced into midweek before beginning a new directional phase lower as long liquidation drove the market toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 95.54s, continuing lower before pausing at/near last week’s key breakout level area at/near 94.20s. 

The market balanced there before continuing the long liquidation into the lower Mar cluster, 94s-92s, achieving the weekly Stopping Point at/near 92s closing the week at/near 92.70s. The market saw back-to-back days of +2 Sigma sellside auctions.
Knowledge of the significance of the Selling Tail and Stopping Point early in the week helped inform our subscribers of a shift in the phase of market development from the directional uptrend to balance. Additionally, understanding the significance of a directional move out of the balance, 97.20s-96.50s, that developed added further insight to the asymmetric market condition facing the buyside in this case. In spite of the market exceeding the statistical expectations, this information provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (short positions) in congruence with the market structure.

This study provides a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion. 
It facilitates trade efficiency and minimizes asymmetric risk. 

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