Weekend News 23Mar

As noted in last week’s review hereboth 93.80s and 92s were key in this week’s auction. The pullback to 92s set the stage for range extension higher above the key structural resistance during this week’s contract roll and larger balance context.

The market auctioned lower from last week’s close toward the Wkly 1st Std Dev Low at/near 92s where there was a buyside rejection. The market rallied, adjusting the short inventory, toward the key structural high, 93.80s, breaking out higher before achieving the Weekly Stopping Point at/near 94.40s. 

There was a sellside rejection there as the market sold back toward the 92.80s, balancing during the mid-week FOMC/EIA narratives. The sellside then initiated, driving the market lower to retest the weekly low. The retest was met with a buy response as the market rallied back up the weekly range, closing in the upper quartile for the week at/near 93.75s.

Next week’s response on a retest of the high at/near 94.40s will be of focus. IF 94.40s hold as resistance, price discovery potential toward 92s, likely range extension to 90.50s. IF 94.40s fail as resistance, price discovery potential toward 95/95.60s.

Graphics

Central Banks

  • Bernanke Refreshes Easy Money Message In Spite Of Non-Voting Hawks’ Complaints. (Reuters)
  • Calls For Interest Rate Hikes In Brazil. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Burgeoning Cooperation Between China & Russia. (RT)
  • BRICs Summit 2013: Development Bank Focus. (BBC)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 22Mar

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 15Mar.
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the Feb distribution breakdown
& directional phase from 95s, identifying the 
longer term shift in market development.

The directional phase ended with the structural development
of the Mar Stopping Point at/near 89.30s, beginning

the current balance phase, 89.30s-94s in the Mar distribution. 

Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 15Mar, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 22Mar. The studies projected support levels included: 92.33, 92.05, 91.78.

Result?…

The market auctioned lower early this week from last week’s Settlement, 93.45s, trading toward the Weekly 1st Std Dev Low, 92.05s, achieving the Stopping Point as the monthly contract roll took full effect. 

The market balanced for the remainder of the week as the market processed the FOMC narrative and the banking crises in Cyprus, short covering into the weekly close at/near 93.70s. The below average range behavior for the week was somewhat expected as contract roll coupled with an FOMC day (here) tend to produce market sound & fury with little actual movement.

Knowledge of the development of the balance phase in the monthly timeframe coupled with the levels of structural significance, 93.80/.50s & 92s, informed our subscribers to the likely balance phase in the event of failure to breakout above the key structural resistance. This insight coupled with the statistical levels provided quantifiable, potential destinations and strategy (range trades) in congruence with the market structure.

These graphs provide a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion.
They facilitate trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk. 

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