WTI Crude: The ECB & NFP Effects. 07Jun


Our Economic Release Studies offered as part of the Daily Statistical Levels Study. 

ECB


Our monthly ECB study comparing the daily ranges of rolling 3 month figures v the 60day and the 30min figures v the 20day (Apr). 

Generally, the London Session offered higher rotational potential than the NY session relative to the longer term averages. Additionally, the data illustrates the 24hour continuum in the electronic trade era where the bulk of rotation is completed by the early Pit session rather than during it. 





Here, the study plotting the ECB days’ range amplitudes relative to 20day Average Daily Range, 1st & 2nd Standard Deviations during Feb-Apr 2013.

The data shows both London & NY sessions exceeded the Average Daily Range a majority of the ECB days (indicated by the green coloration).

Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 06Jun (Jun ECB) and projected levels/inferential analysis for 07Jun. 

The market did indeed auction an Average Daily Range within the first hour (Initial Balance) of the Pit session following the ECB announcement.

VWAP algo dead zone followed as the study inferred. 




NFP

Our monthly NFP study comparing the daily ranges of rolling 3month figures v the 60day and the 30min figures v the 20day (Apr). 

Generally, the last hour of the London Session along with the early NY session offered the highest rotational potential.  








Here, the study plotting the NFP days’ range amplitudes relative to 20day Average Daily Range, 1st & 2nd Standard Deviations during Feb-Apr 2013. 

The data shows the bulk of both London & NY sessions did not exceed the Avg Daily Range (indicated by the blue coloration).

Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 07Jun (Jun NFP) and projected levels/inferential analysis for 10Jun.

The market did auction between an Avg Daily Range & 1st Std Dev during the London session ahead of & into the NFP report as well as near an Average Daily Range within the morning portion of the Pit session.  

Narrow balance followed as the study inferred.


A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today. 28May



Our daily TPO profile graphic for 24May, showing the monthly (left) & weekly (right) timeframe distributions, clearly illustrating the key upper trade cluster, 94.50s-97.30s, the directional breakdown with the development of a Balance phase, 92.20s-94.40s. 


This graphic identifies the key Structural resistance, 94.50s, and the Monthly POC, 95.80s, overhead which were key levels in the event of a buyside directional phase.  





Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 24May and projected levels/inferential analysis for 28May. 

Result?…




Following Monday’s holiday shortened Globex session, Tue’s auction saw initiated buying drive price higher to 95.92s, at/near the Avg Daily Range High, 95.83s, before developing the Stopping Point & Balance into the close. 




Here, our daily range study identifies the range amplitudes and the number of sessions achieving each amplitude. 

Recent behavior shows of 22 NY sessions in April, only 3 exceeded the Daily 1st Std Dev. 

Knowledge of this data helped inform subscribers of the statistical fact that there was a high probability of the market achieving the Daily High at/near this area on a confluence of structural, statistical, and order flow signals. 

Exit of long positions at/near that level, and/or initiating of short positions were appropriate in congruence with today’s market structure. 


A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic.  

For additional information & a 1 week free trial, 
please visit our subscription page.