WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today. 15Mar




Our daily TPO profile graphic for 15Mar. 
This graph shows weekly distribution (right) development at/near the upper quartile of the monthly distribution (left) following the breakout above structural resistance, 92s, and buyside phase.

This graphic reflects the major structural resistance at/near 93.80s, micro support at 93.20/.10s, and the major structural support at/near 92s. Insight into the significance of these levels was key in the 18Mar auction.





Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 15Mar and projected statistical levels/inferential analysis for 18Mar. 

Result?…





Following Friday’s failed Gap Open Higher, the market auctioned lower during Sunday Asia session toward the Avg Daily Range Low, 92.41s, achieving a Stopping Point and balance there, probing the low, and auctioning toward the 1st Std Dev Low, 91.80s, before eliciting a buy response. 

This level coincided with the key structural support (noted in TPO profile) and the buyside rejection of that level indicated an important shift in the market condition in the day timeframe. The short covering rally had begun. 

Knowledge of the key structural development of Friday (Gap Open Higher failure) informed our subscribers to the potential buyside inventory imbalance and subsequent asymmetric risk (long positions in this case) at/near the high. 

This knowledge coupled with the structural and statistical levels based on market generated data, not opinion, provided the context necessary to align trade with the dominant market participant (in this case sellside) and insight  into where such activity may be shut off (in this case the Daily 1st Std Dev Low/Structural Support). 

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WTI Crude: Tomorrrow’s Levels, Today. 19Feb

Our daily TPO profile graphic for 19Feb.
This graph shows the key structural formation
of the Buy Spike, 95.95s-96.70s, into the 19Feb close. 

Spike rules dictate that should one edge of the Spike hold as resistance/support, then the inventory imbalance creates high degree of probability of revisting the other edge of the Spike Range with potential for continuation in that direction. 

This condition manifested in a substantial way as the Spike High held as resistance, trading to Spike Low,  continuing lower, ultimately breaking down below the major structural support at 95s, adjusting inventory down to 94s before reaching a stopping point. 

Knowledge of this Spike, along with the significance of a structural support breakdown, provided the insight into most favorable positioning, in this case sellside. 



Our daily statistical study plotting both the key reference levels & price action for 19Feb, noting the Buy Spike, as well as projected statistical levels for 20Feb. 

The graph shows our daily statistical expectations for 20Feb: (95.48, 95.05, 94.62 as potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for 20Feb. 

Result?…


The market challenged the Spike High, probing above toward 97s. The buyside failed there, creating inventory imbalance, resulting in the sellside auction, which accelerated on the structural breakdown at 95s. 

Regardless of the widely speculated cause/(s) and despite the rhetorical sound & fury, knowledge of the structural development and statistical levels provided necessary context and appropriate course of action for the informed participant.

Knowledge of the structural significance of the Buy Spike at Tue’s close, coupled with the significance of a breakdown at 95s informed the participant about the proper strategy (short positions in this case), eliminating the asymmetric risk (long positions in this case), AND the proper expectations (price discovery into Jan cluster, 94.40s-92.40s & daily statistical levels) based on the market generated data, not opinion. 

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