WTI Crude: Tomorrrow’s Levels, Today. 19Feb

Our daily TPO profile graphic for 19Feb.
This graph shows the key structural formation
of the Buy Spike, 95.95s-96.70s, into the 19Feb close. 

Spike rules dictate that should one edge of the Spike hold as resistance/support, then the inventory imbalance creates high degree of probability of revisting the other edge of the Spike Range with potential for continuation in that direction. 

This condition manifested in a substantial way as the Spike High held as resistance, trading to Spike Low,  continuing lower, ultimately breaking down below the major structural support at 95s, adjusting inventory down to 94s before reaching a stopping point. 

Knowledge of this Spike, along with the significance of a structural support breakdown, provided the insight into most favorable positioning, in this case sellside. 



Our daily statistical study plotting both the key reference levels & price action for 19Feb, noting the Buy Spike, as well as projected statistical levels for 20Feb. 

The graph shows our daily statistical expectations for 20Feb: (95.48, 95.05, 94.62 as potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for 20Feb. 

Result?…


The market challenged the Spike High, probing above toward 97s. The buyside failed there, creating inventory imbalance, resulting in the sellside auction, which accelerated on the structural breakdown at 95s. 

Regardless of the widely speculated cause/(s) and despite the rhetorical sound & fury, knowledge of the structural development and statistical levels provided necessary context and appropriate course of action for the informed participant.

Knowledge of the structural significance of the Buy Spike at Tue’s close, coupled with the significance of a breakdown at 95s informed the participant about the proper strategy (short positions in this case), eliminating the asymmetric risk (long positions in this case), AND the proper expectations (price discovery into Jan cluster, 94.40s-92.40s & daily statistical levels) based on the market generated data, not opinion. 

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WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today. 08Feb

Below, our daily TPO profile graphic for Fri 08Feb. 
This graph shows the breakdown lower 
below the structural support (97s)
 from the upper micro cluster (98.20s-97s) into
the middle Jan cluster (97s-95s), as inferred.

Plotted are Support (blue), Resistance (red),
& Points of Control (green) which
provide insight into levels of significance
based on market structure, not opinion.

Our daily statistical study plotting both key reference levels & price action for 08Feb as well as our projected statistical support/resistance levels for 11Feb.

The included inferential analysis notes the Sell Spike structure, 96.40s-95.30s, and its implications for the Mon 11Feb auction.

Result?…


The market balanced within the Fri Sell Spike range before probing its low, encountering no longer term sell response. This implied revisiting the Sell Spike High, (96.40s), with potential for inventory adjustment higher. This is what occurred.

The rally continued up to the Avg Daily Range High, (96.86s), before achieving a stopping point and closing at/near the high of the day. 


Knowledge of the structural significance of Friday’s Sell Spike coupled with daily statistical levels informed the participant about both the proper strategy (long positions in this case), AND the proper expectations of potential (the Spike High & Statistical Levels above), based market generated data, not opinion.


This insight provided the tools for  highly efficient trade while eliminating
 the asymmetric risk (Short near the low). 

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please visit our subscription page