Weekend News 20Apr

As noted last week here, the market response at/near the 90.25s was key in the outcome of this week’s auction. The market opened this week at/near last week’s low breaking down in the Sunday Globex session well beyond the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low projection, 89.47s, here.

The magnitude of this breakdown implied significant inventory imbalance, and the market continued price discovery lower achieving the Stopping Point at/near 86.10s (Nov-Dec ’12 Major Structural Support Area).

The market saw a relief rally from that level before selling off back down to test the Stopping Point, probing the low down toward 85.70s. There, the market cleared the stops, encountering the buy response, and rallied the market off the low. This action solidified the development of the Balance Phase, 86s-89s, amidst the contract roll, closing the week at/near 88.30s. 

Next week’s response to either edge of the developing Balance Phase, 86-89s, will be of focus. 
As the Balance matures, inventory imbalance will develop. At that point, IF 86s hold as support, breakout price discovery potential to 89.50s/91s. IF 89s hold as resistance, breakout price discovery potential to 84s.


Graphics

Central Banks

  • “Highlights” Of IMF/World Bank Meetings. (IMF)
  • Next BOE Chief, Carney, Praises Fed’s Rate “Signals”. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Japan’s Iranian Crude Import Drop On Pause For US Sanction Exemption. (Platts)
  • G-20: Officials Decry Lack Of Growth. (AP)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • US Crude Data Shows Reflects Slow Growth, Sayeth API. (UPI)
  • Statoil Makes “Significant” North Sea Find. (UPI)
  • Reinhart-Rogoff Study May Be Flawed, Sayeth UMass Researchers. (Reuters)