Weekend News 16Mar

As noted in last week’s review here, this week’s response at the key structural resistance, 91.50s/92s, was key. The sellside failure there set the stage for this week’s auction.

The market auctioned down to the Avg Wkly Range Low area, encountered a buy response, auctioning to the key structural resistance, 91.50s/92s, where the sellside failed to defend. The buyside auction continued to the Wkly 1st Std Dev High, developing a Stopping Point and balance through mid-week. 

Following balance and a restest of the structural breakout point, 92s, the market began a new buyside auction higher toward the Wkly 2nd Std Dev High, closing the week at/near the high. 

Next week’s response at/near the 93.80s will be of focus. IF 93.80s hold as resistance, price discovery potential lower toward 92s/90.50s. IF 93.80s fail as resistance, price discovery potential higher toward 95/95.60s.

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Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • Michael Hayden, Former CIA & NSA Director, Opines On The War Paradigm, Iran, Cyberwarfare, Drones, Post Ch├ívez Venezula, et al. (RT)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • Iran Increases Oil Exports M/o/M, Despite US Sanctions. (Oil Price)
  • KLM Flies 777 TransAtlantic On Cooking Oil. (Oil Price)
  • IEA March Oil Market Report. (IEA)
  • 1936 Redux: This Time It’s Different. (Zerohedge)

Outrageous Market Fortune

  • May 6 2010: Money & Speed: Inside The Black Box. (Backlight)

WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 15Mar

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 08Mar. 
Plotted are Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show the Feb distribution breakdown
& directional phase from 95s, identifying the 
longer term shift in market development, resulting in 
breakdown below prior Jan structural lows (92.40s/91.50s).

This development implied high probability of price discovery 
lower into Fall 2012 trade cluster, 90.40s-87.90s, where the market achieved 
the Stopping Point, 89.30s, and Balance into the Mar distribution.

 Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 08Mar, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 15Mar. The studies projected resistance levels included 93.07, 93.35, 93.63.

Result?…

The market auctioned down early in the week toward the 91s, at/near the Avg Weekly Range Low, 90.83s, where the sellside auction was shut off, shifting buyside. 

The market auctioned higher toward the structural resistance, 92s, balancing, then breaking out upside. The successful breakout above the structural resistance, 92s, implied high probability of price discovery potential toward the next structural resistance overhead. This is, in fact, what transpired. 


Following the breakout, the market auctioned higher into mid-week toward the Weekly 1st Std Dev High area, 93.35s, which coincided with key structural resistance at/near 93.40s, evidenced in the monthly TPO profile. Following the development of the Stopping Point at/near 93.40s, the market began the balance phase from 93.40s-92s into week’s end. The market challenged the key structural resistance, 93.40s, on Friday, in a Gap open structure, which failed, balancing into the close at/near the 93.50s.

The knowledge of the development of the monthly Stopping Point in early Mar at/near 89.30s and subsequent balance phase from 89.30s-92s informed our subscribers of the growing asymmetric risk to the sellside in the event of a breakout above the key structural resistance, 92s. This insight coupled with the structural & statistical levels provided quantifiable, potential destinations of the auction in congruence with the market structure. 

These graphs provide a holistic view based on the market generated data, not opinion. 
They facilitate trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk. 

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