WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 04Oct

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 27Sep.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green). 

The left graphic shows Aug’s monthly timeframe Balance, 102.20s-108.90s, 
and subsequent false breakout up to 112.25s, followed by Sep’s inventory
adjustment lower back into Aug Balance, filling in the Structural Buying Tail, 104.20s-105.70s, 
before price discovery lower continued toward Major Structural Support, 102.20s. 

Last week’s auction (right) documented the development of Balance, 102.20s-105s,
following the Structural Stopping Point Low at 102.20s.  

Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 27Sep, projected levels/ inferential analysis for 04Oct, and weekly range frequency table. 


The market opened this week at/near 102.50s, where sell programs entered, driving price lower, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point Low, 101s, developing the Balance Area, 101s-102.50s, into midweek. 

Buy programs entered on the EIA narrative, driving price higher, above the multi-day Balance, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point High, 104.40s, near last week’s Overhead Supply Cluster/Low Usage Area, 103.80s-104.40s. The market balanced the back half of the week, 102.80s-104.40s, closing at/near 103.60s. 

Ultimately, this week’s auction continued price discovery lower below Aug’s Major Structural Support, 102.20s, terminating at/near Jul’s Structural Support, 101s, failing to achieve the Weekly Range Expectation as Balance, 101s-104.40s, resumed. 

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the significance of the response to the Major Structural Support, 102.20s, its implications, and quantifiable potential destinations in congruence with market structure. In this case, short positions upon Major Structural Support failure followed by responsive trade as the Stopping Point Low, 101s, and subsequent Balance, 101s-104.40s, formed. 

Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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