WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today. 09Oct

Our daily statistical study plotting both key reference levels/price action
for 08Oct and key reference levels for 09Oct.

Our Monthly/Daily profile study for 08Oct.
Result?…

As inferred yesterday, near term low was likely put in place
in yesterday’s London session on retest of 88s.
Expectation of rally potential an ADR (91.32) and
auction into key supply cluster overhead (91-93s) toward
POC at/near 91.60s.
Objective achieved. 

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Weekend News 06Oct

The Brent-WTI spread closed higher this week at/near $22.12.
This is interesting for two reasons:
 1. $20 has been a key resistance level for months,
2. The market’s clear sellside bias in WTI this week.

Yet again this week, we see aggressive selling in WTI
with a rising Brent-WTI spread.

Next week’s response to these diverging conditions
either place Brent above value or WTI below value on a
relative basis.

Was this week’s selling market specific
to WTI or a foreshadow of more
downside ahead?…

Graphics

Central Banks

  • QE3 Priced In? Comparison of QE1 v QE2 v QE3. (Zerohedge)
  • FOMC Minutes Reveal Nothing New. (Zerohedge)
  • Weekly Fund Flows: Emerging Mkt & Hard Currency Bonds Inflows. (FT Beyond BRICs)

Geo-Politics

  • As Rial Plunges, Congress Looks To Expand Iran Sanctions. (Reuters)
  • Hyperinflation: Iran’s Way Out? (Telegraph)
  • IMF: Global Recovery Will Take Six More Years. (Telegraph)

Supply/Demand & Markets

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WTI Crude: Eurozone Effect On Q3 Trade. 05Oct

The study from our quarterly review 
plotting the Eurozone crisis effect 
on London session trade.

Euro-Crises driven volatility was highest
in Jul during Q3 only to decline & normalize through Aug-Sep. 
See how Q3 compares to Q2 here.

To see how London’s volatility compared to NY 

and more in our quarterly review,
please click here.
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WTI Crude: Tomorrow’s Levels, Today… ECB. 04Oct

Our daily statistical study plotting both key references levels/price action
for 03Oct and key reference levels for 04Oct (ECB).
Result?…

In spite weekly & daily time-framing lower,
the market rallied on ECB’s sweet nothings of
further debt monetization to at/near
the 2nd Std Dev High, 91.91s.

Below, our weekly & daily profile study for 03Oct.
This representation helps clarify that yesterday’s
POC (at/near 91.40s) was a likely destination
in today’s auction barring bearish response to ECB.
Result?…

The market did in fact rally back up
to this POC & near term supply cluster as 
inferred yesterday.

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please visit our subscription page.

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Midweek News 03Oct

Source: EIA (Oct 2012)

Graphics

Central Banks

Geo-Politics

  • Iran, The Dollar, & Financial Warfare. (Seeking Alpha/Jim Rickards)
  • US Seeks To Destabilize Iran By Dropping Opposition Group From Terrorist List. (RT)
  • Deal Between Kurdish Region & Iraq May Be Big Boost To Nation’s Oil Industry. (Platts)
  • Is France Really Spain In Disguise? (WSJ)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • API: +500k v +1.5mil exp. (Reuters)
  • EIA: -500k v +1.5mil exp. (EIA)
  • US Shale Boom A Boon For Asian Crude Imports. (Reuters)
  • Charting Eurozone Refining Capacity Shortfall. (FT Alpha)
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