WTI 25May

Wednesday’s Auction
via The Daily

As noted in Tue’s analysis, the focus into Wed’s auction on response to Tue’s High, 48.93s, driving price higher toward 49.62s, at Key Structural Resistance. Focus into Thu’s auction on response to Key Structural Resistance, 49.60s. 

Week In Review 28Feb

WTI 26Feb

Friday’s Auction
via The Daily

As noted in Thu’s analysis, the focus into Fri’s auction on response  to  Thu’s Selling Tail, 33.49s-33.20s, was key as Globex buying interest drove price higher through the Selling Tail toward the Avg Daily Range High. Responsive sell programs entered, forming a Selling Tail before driving price lower as a corrective phase began following the 5 Wave Buyside auction. Focus into Mon’s auction on response to 32.66s.

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WTI Crude: Next Week’s Levels, Now. 15Nov

Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 08Nov.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Structural Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).
The left graphic shows the Nov timeframe distribution’s
breakdown below Major Structural Support, 96s, 
and subsequent Balance, 93-95.50s. 

Last week’s auction (right) shows range extension lower
as price discovery continued to seek a Structural Stopping Point Low.
Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 08Nov, projected levels/inferential analysis for 15Nov, and weekly range frequency table. 

Result?…

The market opened  this week  at/near  94.45s, balancing, 94s-95.40s, as responsive sell programs re-entered at prior Overhead Supply.
Sell programs drove price lower, breaking down as the market tested Major Structural Support at/near 93s. The market achieved a Stopping Point at 93s as responsive buy programs entered, and the market balanced, 93s-94.50s, during midweek.  

The market encountered sell programs that drove price toward Key Support, breaking down as the Yellen Senate testimony was priced in. The market plunged to 92.50s, only to encounter responsive buy programs and a quick rejection of the low, forming a Structural Buying Tail, 92.50s-92.90s, as price was driven back into prior Balance, 93s-94.50s, closing the week at/near 93.84s, failing to achieve the minimum weekly range expectation. 

Ultimately, this week’s auction consisted of continued price discovery lower in search of a Structural Stopping Point Low, which was achieved at/near 92.50s. 

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the development of a normal or Gaussian distribution (D shape), the implications of a successful structural breakout, and destinations in congruence with market structure. While the breakdown did not achieve a minimum weekly expectation, the failure of the market to manifest the statistical expectation in the context of a Structural Buying Tail in this instance alerted to the false breakdown premise, illustrating the asymmetric risk to the sellside at/near the low, following the Buying Tail formation. 

Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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