WTI 28Mar

Tuesday’s Auction

As noted in Mon’s analysis, the focus into Tue’s auction on response to prior Supply Cluster, 47.75s-47.85s, was key as Globex buying interest emerged near Mon Settlement, driving price higher in the London auction to 48.33s where micro-balance developed as the mkt opened Gap Higher. Two-sided trade dominated early NY, 48.40s-48.05s, as the Gap held before initiative buying interest emerged at 48.35s, driving price higher to 48.74s at the Avg Daily Range High where responsive selling interest emerged, closing at 48.37s.

Focus into Wed’s auction on response to Tue’s Upper Cluster, 48.75s-48.50s, within the context of a potential Stopping Point High development.

WTI 17Mar

Friday’s Auction

As noted in Thu’s analysis, the focus into Fri’s auction on response to developing Balance, 48.45s-48.90s, was key as buying interest emerged, driving price higher during Globex, achieving the Stopping Point High, 49.62s, near the Avg Daily Range High as the market opened Gap Higher. Initiative buy programs entered at 49.55s, driving price modestly higher to 49.71s where responsive selling interest emerged, driving price lower back into Balance, signaling a False Breakout. Controlled selling unfolded, driven price lower through Globex Balance amidst the Apr-May contract roll, closing at 49.31s.

Focus into Mon’s auction on response to Fri’s Balance, 49.10s-49.71s.

WTI 15Mar

Wednesday’s Auction

As noted in Tue’s analysis, the focus  into Wed’s auction on response to Tue’s Key Supply Cluster, 47.90s-48.10s, was key as Globex buying interest emerged, driving price higher, achieving a Stopping Point, 48.87s. Selling Interest emerged, developing Balance, 48.30s-48.87s, into the NY open as a Gap Higher developed. Initiative buy programs entered at 48.46s, post EIA driving price modestly higher in stop clearing range extension to 48.88s, where responsive sell programs entered, driving price lower, before initiative sell programs entered at 48.35s, driving price lower in a Sellside Breakdown attempt to 48.16s. Responsive buy programs entered, rejecting the low as price traded back into prior Balance, signaling a false Sellside Breakdown. Narrow, two-sided trade developed, 48.75s-48.35s, ahead of the FOMC data. Initiative buy programs entered at 48.80s-48.85s, as a Buy Spike formed, closing at 48.86s.

Focus into Thu’s auction on response to Wed’s Buy Spike, 48.40s-49.05s.

WTI 01Mar

Wednesday’s Auction

As noted in Tue’s analysis, the focus into Wed’s auction on response to the Tue’s Unsecured High, 54.08s, was key as Globex buying interest drove price higher to 54.31s as the market opened Gap Higher. Buying interest emerged at 54.25s, post EIA, driving price modestly higher, achieving the Stopping Point, 54.42s, where responsive selling interest emerged, driving price back into Balance as the Buyside Breakout failed. Long liquidation developed to 53.72s through the Globex range where buying interest emerged and Balance developed, 53.75s-54s, closing at 53.83s.

Focus into Thu’s auction on response to the Wed’s Key Demand Cluster, 53.75s-54s.

WTI 23Feb

Thursday’s Auction

As noted in Wed’s analysis, the focus into Thu’s auction on response to Wed’s Stopping Point Low, 53.35s, was key as buying interest emerged in early Globex, driving price aggressively higher to 54.74s, near our Daily 1st Std Dev High Expectation into the NY open as a Gap Higher developed. Initiative buying interest emerged at 54.75s, driving price modestly higher to 54.89s, where selling interest emerged, developing Balance, 54.90s-54.55s, into the EIA release. Initiative buy programs entered post-EIA at 54.83s, driving price higher in range extension to 54.94s, near our Daily 2nd Std Dev High Expectation. Selling interest emerged there, driving price aggressively lower as the Buyside Breakout failed. The market achieved a Stopping Point, 54.19s, into mid -auction, where buying interest emerged, developing Balance, 54.20s-54.50s, closing at 54.45s.

Focus into Fri’s auction on response to Thu’s Key Demand Cluster, 54.20s-54.50s.