WTI 12Apr

Wednesday’s Auction

As noted in Tue’s analysis, the focus into Wed’s auction on response to 53.43s, was key as minor range extension higher developed during Globex to 53.76s where selling interest emerged, driving price lower in a false Buyside Breakout, achieving an Unsecured Stopping Point Low, 52.98s, closing at 53.11s.

Focus into Thu’s auction on response to Wed’s Unsecured Low, 52.98s.

WTI 24Mar

Friday’s Auction

As noted in Thu’s analysis, the focus into Fri’s auction on response to the developing Balance Cluster, 47.60s-47.95s, was key as Globex buying interest drove price higher in a Buyside Breakout Attempt, auctioning to 48.12s. Selling interest emerged there, driving price back into Balance as the Buyside Breakout failed. Rotation through the prior Balance, consistent with market logic, as selling interest emerged at 47.65s, attempting to drive price lower in a Sellside Breakdown Attempt to 47.54s. Buying interest emerged there, driving price back into Balance, as two-sided trade developed, closing at 47.97s.

Focus into Mon’s auction on response to the developing Balance Cluster, 47.60s-48.05s.

WTI 23Mar

Thursday’s Auction

As noted in Wed’s analysis, the focus into Thu’s Auction on to Wed’s High, 48.32s, was key as Globex Buying Interest drove price modestly higher in a stop clearing probe of the High to 48.48s where selling interest emerged, driving price lower back into Balance as the Buyside Breakout failed. Controlled selling followed as initiative sell programs entered at 48.05s, driving price lower into the NY auction, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 47.58s, where responsive buying emerged, developing Balance, 47.60s-47.95s, closing at 47.70s.

Focus into Fri’s auction on response to the developing Balance Cluster, 47.60s-47.95s, within the context of a potential Higher Low above the current Stopping Point Low, 47s.

WTI 21Mar

Tuesday’s Auction

As noted in Mon’s analysis, the focus into Tue’s auction on response to developing D-Shape Distribution, 48.46s-49.36s, was key as a failed Globex Buyside Breakout above the D-Shape resulted in a Sellside Breakdown, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 47.99s at our Avg Daily Range Low Expectation before short covering inventory adjustment emerged, closing at 48.24s.

Focus into Wed’s Auction on response to Tue’s Unsecured Low, 47.99s.

WTI 16Mar

Thursday’s Auction

As noted in Wed’s analysis, the focus  into Thu’s auction on response to Wed’s Buy Spike, 48.40s-49.05s, was key as buying interest entered early in Globex near Wed Settle, 48.86s, driving price higher in a Buyside Breakout. Price discovery higher developed to 49.62s near our Avg Daily Range High Expectation where responsive selling emerged in the London auction, driving price lower to the Buyside Breakout Area into the NY open. Selling interest emerged, 48.95s, driving price lower through the Breakout Area into prior Balance, signaling a False Buyside Breakout. Price discovery lower continued into mid-auction, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 48.45s, where responsive buying interest emerged, developing Balance, 48.45s-48.75s, closing at 48.75s.

Focus into Fri’s auction on response to developing Balance, 48.45s-48.90s, within the context of a potential False Breakout.