WTI Crude Daily 30Mar



Friday's Auction

As noted in Fri's analysis, focus into Mon's auction on response to Fri's Sell Spike was key as selling interest emerged within the Spike, forming a Structural Selling Tail, 49.15s-48.90s, ultimately resulting in price discovery lower toward 47.60s. Focus on 47.50s-47s into Tue's auction. 






Monday's Micro-Blog Excerpt

Noted here during Mon's auction
(Highlighted in yellow)
  • Failure of the Buyside breakout attempt above the Globex High at/near 48.70s, implied potential for sellside rotation through the Globex range. This probability path was also supported by the development of the Structural Selling Tail, 49.15s-48.90s. 
  • Sellside rotation developed through the Globex range, achieving a sellside momentum extreme into 48.10s with expectation for price extreme to follow the momentum extreme.
  •  Key downside reference levels including the Globex Low, 47.64s. Ultimately, price discovery developed toward the Globex Low where buying interest halted the downward auction into the NY close.


Monday's Auction

WTI Crude Daily 27Mar



Thursday's Auction

As noted in Thu's analysis, focus into Fri's auction on response to the Key Overhead Supply Cluster, 52s-50.80s, was key as selling interest entered at/near 50.80s, driving price lower toward the Daily 2nd Std Dev Low. Focus into Mon's auction on response to Fri's Sell Spike.




Friday's Auction

Weekend News 29Mar


15-20Mar Auction
via The Daily 
 
Despite bearish market punditry and media reportage, the market structure reflected a Stopping Point Low at/near 43s around 13Jan 2015. The Stopping Point Low was followed by the next (and current) phase of market development, Balance, 43s-55s, as the market develops a D shape, Gaussian structure and well articulated POC, 49.20s. These structural facts (which we've noted to clients during Jan-Mar timeframe) reflect the maturing of the rotation and increasing potential for directional activity on breakout above/below 60s/43s. 


Analysis of market structure provides a robust and elegant framework for market understanding amidst a complex system and a variety of conflicting narratives. 

For additional information, join us via The Daily.


22-27Mar Auction

Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • Yemen: A Saudi -Iran Battleground? (BBC)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

WTI Crude Daily 26Mar


Wednesday's Auction

As noted in Wed's analysis, focus on Buy Spike, 48.40s-49.45s, into Thu's auction was key as buying interest emerged within the Buy Spike on geopolitical narrative, driving price higher beyond the Daily 2nd Std Dev High, ultimately developing value higher. Focus into Fri's auction on response to the Key Overhead Supply Cluster, 52s-50.80s. 





 
Thursday's Micro-Blog Excerpt I

Noted here during Thu's auction
(highlighted in yellow)

  • Filling in of the early Buying Tail, implying potential for price discovery below 50.10s.
  • Key downside reference levels including the Globex Buy Program Support, 49.80s. 
  • Sellside momentum extreme developing into the 49.80s.  







 
Thursday's Micro-Blog Excerpt II

Noted here during Thu's auction
(highlighted in yellow)

  • Following development of the sellside momentum low at/near 49.80s, buying interest emerges at/near Globex Buy Program Support, 49.80s, as the NY auction developed a D shape structure, implying the potential for directional activity.
  • Initiative buy programs (IBP) entered at/near 50.45s-50.50s as price discovery higher unfolded toward 15.65s. 

Thursday's Auction

WTI Crude Daily 25Mar



Tuesday's Auction

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus into Wed's auction on response to Tue's Key Structural Support, 47.15s, was key as buying interest entered there, ultimately resulting in price discovery higher despite the "bearish" EIA data narrative toward the Avg Daily Range High. Focus on Buy Spike, 48.40s-49.45s, into Thu's auction.





Wednesday's Micro-Blog Excerpt

Noted during Wed's auction
(Highlighted in yellow)
  •  Sellside momentum extreme reached early in NY auction at/near 47.35s.
  • Responsive buy programs (RBP) enter at/near 47.45s-47.55s.
  • Key Structural Support holds as a Structural Buying Tail, 47.40s-47.70s, develops, implying potential for price discovery higher.
  • Buy programs at/near 48.05s. Ultimately, the market auctioned higher toward our Avg Daily Range High Expectation, 49.25s, to 49.46s. 



Wednesday's Auction