Midweek News 17Dec


Tuesday's Auction 
As noted in Tue's analysis, focus on response to the low amidst the current Trade Cluster, 53.60s-57.15s, was key in Wed's auction as buying interest emerged near Key Structural Support, as short covering inventory adjustment occurred amidst the beginning of the Balance phase of market development. Focus on response to Wed's Breakout Area/Low Usage Support, 56.80s-57.40s into Thu's auction. 




Wednesday's Auction 

Central Banks

Geopolitics

Source: EIA (Dec 2014)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • EIA: -800k v -2.6mil exp. (EIA)

WTI Crude Daily 16Dec


Monday's Auction 

As noted in Mon's analysis, focus on response to the unsecured low area, 55s-56s, was key in Tue's auction as selling interest emerged at/near 55.55s, driving price lower, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 53.60s, near the Daily 1st Std Dev Low. Despite the Gap Lower open, responsive buying interest emerged in aggressive short covering inventory, filling the Gap. A Structural Stopping Point Low, 53.60s, is potentially in place. Focus on response to the low amidst the current Trade Cluster, 53.60s-57.15s, into Wed's auction.


 

Tuesday's Micro-Blog Excerpt

Noted here during Tuesday's auction, that the market had achieved the Daily 1st Std Dev Low and based on current market generated data on a rolling 20day basis, there was an 85% probability that level hold as support, provided buying interest emerged there. Following clearing of Buy Stops below the Globex Low, responsive buy programs were noted, driving price higher toward our upside expectation, 56.40s (Mon's HVN)/ 57.58s (Tue's Avg Daily Range High).






 Tuesday's Auction
via The Daily

WTI Crude Daily 15Dec

Friday's Auction 

As noted in Fri's analysis, focus on response to 58.50s-57.40s, was key in Mon's auction as selling interest entered early in the Globex auction, driving price lower to the Avg Daily Range Low. Responsive buying interest emerged there, developing Balance, 56.25s-58.75s, into the NY auction before selling interest entered at/near 56.35s, driving price toward the Daily 1st Std Dev Low. Focus on response to the unsecured low area, 55s-56s, into Tue's auction. 
 





Monday's Micro-Blog Excerpt

Noted here during Monday's Auction, the initiative sell programs entered into the NY auction within the context of the Globex Upper Cluster, 57.60s-58.70s. Indicated is the implication and expectation of a breach of 57.60s likely resulting in long liquidation along with the expected levels including the Globex Low, 56.25s. The market ultimately traded there and lower into the close.






Monday's Auction

Weekend News 14Dec

30Nov-05Dec Auction 





As noted in last week's analysis, focus on response to last week's Low Usage, 64s-67.50s, was key as selling interest drove price lower upon the market reopen ultimately driving price toward the Weekly 1st Std Dev Low. Focus on response to 57.30s-58.50s into next week's auction. 





07-12Dec Auction

Central Banks

  • Will Selling Euros Bear Fruit In 2015? (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Carbon Rules Crazy In Light Of Oil Price Decline, Sayeth Canada's PM Harper. (Bloomberg)
  • OPEC Special Meeting Possible Q1 2015 On Further Price Decline. (Bloomberg)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • Don't Count On Oil Drop Boosting Global Growth. (Bloomberg)

WTI Crude Daily 12Dec


Thursday's Auction

As noted in Thu's analysis, focus on response to the unsecured low area, 58.80s-60s, was key in Fri's auction as selling interest drove price lower from there. Globex balance ultimately gave way to a Sell Spike, 59.10s-58.40s, resulting in price discovery lower toward the Daily 2nd Std Dev Low. Focus on response to 58.50s-57.40s, into Mon's auction. 


 





Friday's Micro-Blog Excerpt 

Noted here during Friday's auction was the auction to the Globex Low, looking for the initiative sellside there. The sellside appeared driving price lower, forming a Structural Sell Spike, 59.10s-58.40s, implying the potential for price discovery lower. Noted are the key reference levels based on our database. Ultimately, the market auctioned lower toward the Daily 2nd Std Dev Low before the halting of the sellside auction occurred. 






Friday's Auction

WTI Crude Daily 11Dec


Wednesday's Auction 

As noted in Wed's analysis, focus on response to 60.40-61s, was key in Thu's auction as selling interest drove price lower, achieving a Stopping Point, 60.10s, during Pit session hours before selling off toward 58.80s. Focus on response to the unsecure low area, 58.80s-60s, into Fri's auction. 








Thursday's Micro-Blog Excerpt
via The Daily

Noted here during Thu's auction was the shakedown of the weak Globex long inventory, the failure of the initiative sellside to defend low which resulted in the formation of a Buying Tail, 60.10s-60.45s. As noted, this formation implied the potential for price discovery higher and expectation levels provided, 68.10s/61.40s were both achieved before the Stopping Point High, 61.50s. Finally, noted was the implication of the failure of the Buying Tail for price discovery lower, which ultimately unfolded toward the Daily 1st Std Dev Low, 58.83s.  






Thursday's Auction

Midweek News 10Dec

Tuesday's Auction 
via The Daily

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus on response to the Balance, 62.25s-64.20s, was key in Wed's auction as selling interest emerged there, forming a Sell Spike, 62.80s-62.25s, into the Pit session open, implying potential for price discovery lower. The market auctioned lower, exacerbated by the bearish EIA data, achieving a Stopping Point, 60.43s. Focus on response to 60.40-61s, into Thu's auction. 




 Wednesday's Micro-Blog Excerpt
                 via The Daily

Noted here during Wed's auction, the development of the Structural Sell Spike, 62.80s-62.25s, and the implication for price discovery lower. The market ultimately traded toward, 60.43s.



Wednesday's Auction

Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • "Data Is The New Oil": EU Declares War On Silicon Valley. (Telegraph)
  • Iran Faces Budget Shortfall Amid Oil Price Decline. (Bloomberg)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • EIA: +1.5mil v -2.6mil exp. (EIA)
  • Why Oil Companies Should Be More Profitable Than They Are. (Reuters)