Statistical studies, market intelligence, news aggregation for global energy markets.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 21May






Overnight

As of 730 CST, 
the market has auctioned lower from Mon Settlement, 97s, filling in some of yesterday's low usage area below the upper cluster, 97.35s-96.85s. 

As value moves lower, response at/near the Stopping Point, 96.25s, will be of focus into Pit session open. 

Monday, May 20, 2013

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 20May




Overnight:

As of 730 CST, 
the market has auctioned lower from Fri Settlement, 96s, and Selling Tail, 96.45s-96.20s, achieving the Stopping Point at/near the 95.35s. 

The market balanced before initiated buying entered ahead of the Chicago Fed release driving price back to Settlement. 

Volume has moved to Jul contract, so roll may create some volatile balance until completed. This and response to Fri Selling Tail of focus into Pit session.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Weekend News 18May

This week's auction balanced within the Key Structural Supply Cluster, 95s-97.20s, early week before initiated selling entered the market, driving price toward the Wkly 2nd Std Dev Low, 93.66s, continuing toward Structural Support, 92s, where the Stopping Point developed midweek. 

Following the Stopping Point/shakeout of weak long inventory, the market encountered initiated buying, driving price higher during the back half of the week, achieving the Stopping Point at 96.45s, closing the week at 96s. 

Graphics

Central Banks

  • Are We Entering The Era Of The USDollar? (Validus)
  • Bank of Canada Sees Unconventional Policy Benefits Outweigh Risks. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

  • Petrodollar To Petrogold: US Seeks To Cut Off Iran's Access To Gold. (Trend)
  • Senator Seeks Probe Into Alleged EU Oil Price Manipulation. (Reuters)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • China's Apr Crude Stockbuild Rises After 5 Month Drawdown. (Platts)
  • Narrowing Brent-WTI Spread, Distillate Production Up, IEA Outlook. (Platts)
  • Shale Boom Sees US Coal Head To Europe & Asia. (Oil Price)

Outrageous Market Fortune

Friday, May 17, 2013

WTI Crude: Next Week's Levels, Now. 17May

Our weekly TPO Profile graphics for 10May. 
Plotted are Key Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).

The graphs show monthly timeframe development of the 
buyside directional phase from Apr's Stopping Point Low, 85.60s,
to May's Stopping Point High, 97.20s (left) and last week's
development of that Stopping Point and Balance Phase (right). 


 Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 10May, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 17May. 

Result?... 

The market balanced within the Key Supply Cluster, 95s-97.20s, early in the week before initiated selling entered the market, driving price toward the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low, 93.66s, continuing toward Structural Support, 92s, where the Stopping Point developed midweek.

 Following the midweek Stopping Point and shakeout of weak long inventory, the market encountered initiated buying, driving price higher during the back half of the week back up the range, achieving the Stopping Point at/near, 96.45s, closing the week at/near the high. 

These studies helped inform our subscribers of the Structural Development of Balance coming into this week's auction as well as implications of a directional breakout of that Balance. This knowledge of Structure as well as Statistical Expectations provided quantifiable, potential destinations (93.50s/92s) and strategy (short positions upon Balance Area failure closed near Statistical & Structural Supports, long positions following Stopping Point development back toward Overhead Cluster & POC) in congruence with the market structure.


A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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please visit our subscription page

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 17May






Overnight: 

As of 730 CST, 
the market has auctioned within Thu's upper cluster, 94.80s-95.70s, around Thu Settlement. 

Market response at/near last week's POC, 95.80s, of focus into Pit session. 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 16May






Overnight

As of 730 CST, 
the market auctioned lower from Wed Settlement, 94.30s, filling in Wed's low usage area before achieving the Stopping Point at/near 93.20s. 

The market balanced, shifting buyisde driving price back toward Wed Settlement. 

Response at/near Settlement will be of focus into Pit session. 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Midweek News 15May

Source: EIA (May 2013)

Graphics

Central Banks

  • ECB Clashes With Germany Over Resolution For Failed Banks. (Reuters)
  • Will "Reforms" Make Banks Safer & Resolve TBTF? (IMF)

Geopolitics

  • EU Oil Manipulation Probe Focusing On Platts Pricing. (Bloomberg)
  • Commodity Trading. (Platts) 
  • US Energy Tax Policy Poised For Changes, Or Not.... (Platts)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • API: +1.1mil. (Reuters)
  • EIA: -600k v +450k exp. (EIA)
  • US Shale Boom To Displace OPEC As Driver Of Supply Growth, Sayeth IEA. (IEA)