As noted in Wed’s analysis, the focus into Thu’s auction on response to the Buyside Breakout Area, 51.80s-51.50s, was key as selling interest emerged there, driving price lower, signaling a false Buyside Breakout. Price discovery lower developed into mid-auction NY, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 50.47s, at our Avg Daily Range Low. Responsive buy programs entered, developing Balance, 50.55s-50.95s, closing at 50.63s.
Focus into Fri’s auction on response to the Key Supply Cluster, 50.90s-51.10s, within the context of a corrective phase beginning.
WTI Daily 19Oct16
The Focus Into Thu 20Oct Centered Upon Response To Wed Stoppin g Point High, 51.93s.
WTI Daily 20Oct16
Thu's Auction Saw Selling Interest During Globex Driving Price Lower Through The Buyside Breakout Area, 51.80s, Driving Price Lower To 50.47s At Our Avg Daily Range Low Target As A False Buyside Breakout Developed.
As noted in Tue’s analysis, the focus into Wed’s auction on response to Tue’s Key Structural Support, 50.53s, was key as buying interest emerged there, driving price aggressively higher during Globex to 51.50s into the London auction as the market formed a Gap Higher open implying asymmetric potential for higher prices. Buying interest entered post EIA data, 51.47s-51.55s, driving price higher in Buyside continuation through Key Structural Resistance, 51.80s, achieving the Stopping Point High, 51.93s, near the Daily 1st Std Dev High. Responsive sell programs entered, developing Balance, into mid-auction, closing at 51.60s, amidst the Nov-Dec contract roll.
Focus into Thu’s auction on response to the Buyside Breakout Area, 51.80s-51.50s.
WTI Daily 18Oct16
The Focus Into Wed 19Oct Centered Upon Response To Either Edge Of The Maturing D Shape Distribution, 50.53s/49.76s.
WTI Daily 19Oct16
Wed's Auction Saw Buying Interest During Globex Drive Price Through Tue's High Forming A Gap Higher Open. The Gap Held Early In The NY Auction Before Buying Interest Emerged Post-EIA, Driving Price Higher To 51.93s Near Our Daily 1st Std Dev High Expectation In A Buyside Directional Breakout Attempt Above Key Resistance, 51.80s.
As noted in Mon’s analysis, the focus into Tue’s auction on response to Mon’s Demand Cluster, 49.47s-49.95s, was key as buying interest emerged at 50s, driving price higher, achieving the Globex Stopping Point High, 50.90s. Responsive sell programs entered, developing Balance before initiative selling programs entered early in the NY auction at/near 50.60s, driving price lower, achieving the Stopping Point Low, 50.10s. Responsive buy programs entered, developing Balance into mid-auction, where buying interest emerged closing at 50.29s.
Focus into Wed’s auction on response to Tue’s Key Structural Support, 50.53s.
WTI Daily 17Oct16
The Focus Into Tue 18Oct Centered Upon Response To Key Support, 49.47s, Within The Near-Term Demand Cluster.
WTI Daily 18Oct16
Tue's Auction Saw Globex Buying Interest Drive Price Higher To 50.56s, Near Mon's Stopping Point High At Composite LVN Before Selling Interest Emerged, Driving Price Lower To 49.46s.
As noted in Fri’s analysis, the focus into Mon’s auction on response to Fri’s Demand Cluster, 49.90s-50.20s, was key as balance developed early in Globex within Fri’s Demand Cluster before a failed Buyside Breakout attempt to 50.60s resulted in price discovery lower to 49.47s near last Thu’s Key Structural Support. Responsive buy programs entered, developing Balance, 49.50s-49.95s, into mid-auction before buying interest emerged at 49.75s, driving price higher in short covering inventory adjustment, closing at 49.94s.
Focus into Tue’s auction on response to Mon’s Demand Cluster, 49.47s-49.95s.
The Focus Into Week 09-14Oct Centered Upon Response To Key Structural Resistance, 50.74s.
WTI Weekly 14Oct16
This Week's Auction Saw Buying Interest Drive Price Higher To 51.60s Where Selling Interest Emerged, Developing Balance,
WTI Weekly COT 11Oct16 (COT Source: CFTC)
The weekly COT report of managed money reflects a near extreme net long position (+287k) coupled with a declining
short position (71k). When net position reaches extreme long posture (225-250k) and short position bottoms
(100-75k), it's an indication & warning (to use intelligence parlance) of a potential top developing.