Midweek News 01Oct

Tuesday's Auction

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus on response to 91s-90.50s into Wed's auction was key as buying interest during the Globex session drove price higher toward the Daily 1st Std Dev High through mid-session. Selling interest emerged there, driving price below Tue's low at/near Key Structural Support.  A market tale of two cities as Globex short covering led to Pit session selling. Focus on response to 90.40s into Thu's auction. EU ECB Policy Guidance Thu.

Wednesday's Auction

Central Banks

  • IMF's GFSR & Shadow Banking. (IMF)

Geopolitics

Supply/Demand & Markets

Source: EIA (Oct 2014)
  • EIA: +700k v -1.4mil exp. (EIA)
  • CRB Commodity Index Worst Quarterly Loss In Three Years. (Reuters)
  • Breakthrough In Oil Sands Water Treatment. (Oil Price)

WTI Crude Daily 30Sep


Monday's Auction
As noted in Mon's analysis, focus on response to Low Usage Resistance, 94.80s-96.80s, overhead in Tue's auction was key as selling interest emerged there, resulting in aggressive long liquidation through the larger Balance, 90.50s-95s. Following Tue's +2Std Dev sellside NY auction, focus on response to 91s-90.50s into Wed's auction as asymmetric potential for lower prices is present into the London auction based on the market generated data. US EIA Wed. 
Tuesday's Auction

WTI Crude Daily 29Sep


Friday's Auction

Mon's auction saw sellside retracement toward Fri's buy program support, 93s-92.80s, where buying interest emerged, ultimately driving price above Key Structural Resistance, 93.50s-93.90s. Focus on response to Low Usage Resistance, 94.80s-96.80s, overhead into Tue's auction as price discovery searches for a Stopping Point High. 

 Monday's Auction

Weekend News 28Sep

14-19Sep Auction
 
As noted in last week's analysis, focus on response to 91.25s-91.80s into this week's auction was key  as buying interest emerged there after sellside clearing of stops. Price discovery higher occurred the remainder of the week, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point High, 93.85s, near the Apr-Sep Lowest POC. Focus on response to Low Usage Resistance, 94.80s-96.80s, overhead into next week's auction. 



21-26Sep Auction
                        

Central Banks

  • German Exception To Debt. (WSJ) 

Geopolitics

  • Russia & Ukraine Move Toward Interim Gas Deal Before Winter. (Bloomberg)
  • EU Moving The GDP Goalpost. (WSJ)
  • A Look Inside The Secret Deal With Saudi Arabia That Unleashed The Syrian Bombing. (Zerohedge)

Supply/Demand & Markets

  • Russia & OPEC Production In A Slump, But Likely A Phase. (Quartz)

WTI Crude Daily 26Sep

Thursday's Auction

As noted in Thu's analysis, focus on response to 92s-91.50s, into Fri's auction was key as buying interest emerged near Key Support resulting in price discovery higher. Focus on response to 93.90s-93.50s into Mon's auction.    

Friday's Auction

WTI Crude Daily 25Sep


Wednesday's Auction
As noted in Wed's analysis, focus on response to Key Structural Resistance/Low Usage, 93s-93.40s, was key in Thu's auction, as selling interest emerged at Key Structural Resistance, driving price lower. Focus into Fri's auction on response to 92s-91.50s. 

Thursday's Auction

Midweek News 24Sep

Tuesday's Auction

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus into Wed's auction around response to 91.80s-92s was key as Tue's Buying Tail, 90.75s-91.25s, held as support, implying the potential for price discovery higher. This probability path did unfold toward the Avg Daily Range High expectation. Focus on response to Key Structural Resistance/Low Usage, 93s-93.40s, into Thu's auction. 

Wednesday's Auction

Central Banks

Geopolitics

  • OPEC Supply Decisions Began & End With Saudis. (Platts)
    Source: EIA (Sep 2013)
  • The PetroYuan: Chinese Navy Docks Destroyer In Iran's Strait Of Hormuz Port. (Zerohedge)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

  • EIA: -4.3mil v +1mil exp. (EIA)
  • New Crude Game Erodes Luster Of Citgo Refineries. (Reuters)